- The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center is still at a 50% chance of tropical development within the next 7 days. There's really only moderate support from the GFS and especially the Euro ensembles since there are 50 Euro ensemble members and 30 GFS ensemble members. Some of the Euro ensembles develop it later than next weekend.

- The potential system in red will likely become Kirk in a few days and become a powerful hurricane and curve north early.

- There is also the slight chance still for a system behind Kirk to become a hurricane and make it a little farther southwest, but nothing to worry about right now.

- 1st image: National Hurricane Center map

- 2nd image: GFS for this coming Saturday

- 3rd image: GFS ensembles for the next 15 days

- 4th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days

- 5th image: Euro ensembles on October 8th

- 6th image: Full Euro ensembles map for the next 15 days