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***3:50 AM update on the thunderstorms and on rapidly intensifying Beryl as it could attain Cat 4 status with 130 mph winds!***

- Hurricane Beryl is already up to 90 mph winds and is undergoing rapid intensification as it has perfect conditions for it. The NHC has raised their peak intensity to 125 mph, but 130 mph is easily within reach. It's just insane to see a major hurricane in this area of the Atlantic before the 4th of July. This is what I mean by saying this will be a wild hurricane season with lots of majors!


- Beryl will gradually weaken in the Caribbean as it encounters wind shear, and it should head towards the Yucatan. There are still some ensemble members that curve it northward towards the western Gulf coast states, but it's a low chance for now.


- The system behind Beryl should stay relatively weak and follow a similar path.


- You all know about the cold front coming later today into this evening with a line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds are the main threats, but a couple of isolated tornadoes are possible with the best chance being north and northwest of Long Island. The timing of the thunderstorms could be between 5 PM and 9 PM for Long Island. Also, it will be VERY humid today with dew points approaching the mid 70's!


- Great weather behind the front for the next few days and then a much warmer and more humid 4th of July with only a slight chance of a later thunderstorm.



- 1st image: Severe thunderstorm potential for today into tonight


- 2nd and 3rd images: Future radar for 6 PM from the HRRR and 9 PM from the NAM


- 4th image: NHC map for Hurricane Beryl


- 5th image: Euro ensembles


- 6th image: NYC forecast









 
 
 

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