4:30 AM update on 100 mph Hurricane Ernesto as it heads towards Bermuda, the Long Island forecast, and a brief look ahead and when the next hurricane may form:

- Hurricane Ernesto has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph as of the 2 AM advisory, but is not a very impressively-formed hurricane. However, it's still heading basically straight for Bermuda and will be a high-impact system there, but nothing that they can't handle.

- A very warm day today with hazy skies from wildfire smoke with moderate air quality, so those that are sensitive to reduced air quality may want to limit your time outdoors.

- Long Island should stay basically dry for most of tomorrow, but not a great stretch ahead from tomorrow night into Tuesday with some occasional periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm with some moderate to heavy downpours being possibly, especially later in the weekend and into early next week. The rainfall maps below from the Model Blend and Euro only show a general idea, as they are not meant to be exact.

- There is some uncertainty as to exactly when the chance of showers ends on Tuesday, but we have a great stretch ahead for the middle to end of next week with cooler temperatures and low humidity.

- No new hurricanes are expected for the next 7 to 10 days, but there are early and subtle signs of a tropical system developing as we approach Labor Day weekend.

- 1st image: My Long Island forecast

- 2nd image: NHC map for Hurricane Ernesto

- 3rd image: 2 PM tomorrow from the HAFS-B model

- 4th image: Long Island temperatures for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles

- 5th image: Euro ensembles for the tropics for the next 15 days

- 6th and 7th images: Rainfall maps through Tuesday from the Model Blend and Euro