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Analysis of new 06Z Euro ensembles (only go out 6 days) and divergent paths:

Since Fiona has been tracking south of guidance, it's important to note that the ones that go over the eastern half of the Dominican Republic become stronger and head farther north. However, there are many that are farther south and go over the western part of the Dominican Republic or over Haiti. It's those that lose intensity and are slower, but eventually emerge and re-gain strength and are heading more northwesterly in the Bahamas (see blue lines) at the end of the rain (6 days). So, nothing is set in stone yet, and we just have to continue to watch it unfold.




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