Changes with some snow possible next Wed and then very cold and can a storm make its way north?
- The Long Island forecast is below, and it will stay windy today with gusts up to at least 35 mph from the west. Uneventful weather for the weekend with some showers possible Sunday night.
- Then things start to get interesting. The system for Wednesday that was previously modeled to bring snow to northern New England and some rain for Long Island and southern New England has trended farther south. The Euro (4th image) and GFS (5th image) are showing some snow for Long Island, but there is still uncertainty, and I have posted all 50 Euro ensemble maps for 1 PM to 7 PM Wednesday in the 6th and 7th images. It looks like a relatively quick moving and fairly weak system, but it has the potential to bring a few inches of snow.
- The brief shot of much colder air then arrives behind the storm, and the question becomes... can a storm then make it farther north next weekend into the cold air and produce a more significant snow? The Euro run ends with snow moving up the coast towards Long Island, but looking at the ensembles shows the great uncertainty and that it's a low chance, so for now we should focus on next Wednesday and see how everything evolves.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Rain ending by around 8 AM in eastern Suffolk and then partly to mostly cloudy and very windy with temperatures dropping into the low 40's in the afternoon. Wind out of the W at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a decreasing wind with lows in the upper 20's. Wind from the W at 15 to 25 mph in the evening and 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with highs just above 40 degrees. Wind out of the W at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy with lows mostly in the low 30's. Wind out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Wind out of the WSW then W at 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. There is a chance of some showers at night.
Monday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and then partly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday: Partly sunny in the morning and mostly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 2nd image: Projected temperatures for Long Island
- 3rd image: Projected 24-hour snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days from every Euro ensemble member
- 4th and 5th images: Maps from the Euro and GFS for early morning next Wednesday
- 6th and 7th images: All 5 Euro ensemble maps for early morning next Wednesday
- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island from the Model Blend