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  • Writer's pictureMy Personal Weatherman™

Damaging wind gusts and the Long Island forecast:

- There is no change to the potential for max wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph on Long Island from a strong low-level jet late Thursday night into early Friday morning (mainly between 2 AM and 6 AM). Also, the main portion of the rain will be from around midnight to 8 AM. The GFS is showing stronger wind gusts than the Euro, but even the Euro ensemble mean is an impressive 61 mph at Islip. It's clear that at least a Wind Advisory will be issued with a chance for a High Wind Watch. Also, remember that the strongest gusts will be right along the south shore, especially in eastern Suffolk and of course out towards Cape Cod.

- Here is an interesting discussion on the wind gust threat from the NWS covering Long Island and the tri-state area: "Ahead of the cold front a strong low-level jet (65-75kt) is signaled to strengthen in the warm sector along the coast. As is typical for this time of year with water temps in the lower 40s, the challenge is how much of the LLJ (low-level jet) will be able to mix down in a strongly inverted low-level environment. As is typical, GFS indicating a deeper mixed layer, with potential for 50-55kt gusts across LI/SE CT, while NAM more strongly inverted indicating gust potential of 35- 40 kt. Reality tends to lie in between in terms of mixing, but still over 72 hrs to monitor trends. Interestingly deterministic NBM (National Blend of Models) version 4.0 indicating 40-45kt gust potential, while version 4.1 showing a 50-55 kt potential, close to its 90th percentile. With all this said, confidence is increasing in a wind advisory event Thu Night along the coast (45 - 55 mph), with potential for damaging high winds gusts (55-65mph), particularly LI and SE CT. The timing for potential strong to high wind impacts for now appears to center around 6-12z (1 AM to 7 AM) Fri."

- Dry weather for the weekend and on President's Day with milder weather again next week with a little uncertainty for the late-week storm next week.


Today: Sunny with highs around 30 degrees. Wind out of the W at 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Clear and cold with lows mostly in the upper teens to low 20's. Wind becoming nearly calm.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny in the morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Wind mostly out of the S at 10 to 20 mph.

Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with lows around 40 degrees and then rising into the mid 40's by morning. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, windy, and mild with a slight chance of a scattered shower late in the day with highs in the mid 50's with some upper 50's in western Nassau. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Rainy and windy overnight with strong wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph.

Friday: Rain ending by around mid-morning (possibly late morning out east) and then becoming partly to mostly sunny, and it will be windy. Temperatures in the 50's early in the morning and then falling to the low 40's by late afternoon. Wind out of the WNW to NW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

Saturday: Sunny with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the WSW at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

Monday (President's Day): Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40's.

- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: 10-day snow map from the NWS Model Blend

- 3rd image: Maximum projected wind gusts in knots from the Euro through Friday morning

- 4th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend

- 5th and 6th images: Maps from the Euro for midnight Thursday night and 8 AM Friday

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