Extreme heat and humidity, thunderstorms, Tropical Storm Fred, and future Grace:
- You all know about the heat wave with high humidity. While heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in effect for Long Island and nearby areas for today and tomorrow, they will clearly be needed for Friday as well, but the National Weather Service didn't want to issue them yet. The heat index for Long Island could be as high as 103 degrees today and 106 degrees tomorrow and Friday, mostly in northern and western areas. Heat index temperatures up to 108 degrees are possible for inland areas of NJ, NY, and southern New England.
- Some pop-up thunderstorms will be around each afternoon into early evening, and they will contain very heavy downpours, but the odds of them on Long Island are fairly low. There is a better chance of thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon/evening with the cold front.
- Tropical Storm Fred officially formed late last night, and it will bring flooding rains and gusty winds along its path, but the concern is that it will strengthen in the eastern Gulf as it heads north towards the Florida Panhandle into a strong tropical storm or possibly a minimal hurricane.
- Invest 95L (future Grace) is still being given a 30% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days, but that will increase going forward, and it poses a potential problem down the road for the Caribbean and possibly the United States.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
**A Heat Advisory has been issued for all of Long Island with the exception of southeastern Suffolk for today and tomorrow for heat index temperatures up to 103 degrees today and 106 degrees tomorrow**
Today: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid with highs in the upper 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy and very humid with lows in the low 70's. Wind out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, very hot, and humid with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the late afternoon or evening with highs mostly in the low 90's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Friday: Mostly sunny, very hot, and humid with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the late afternoon or evening with highs mostly in the low 90's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday: Partly sunny, hot, and humid with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with highs in the upper 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NW in the afternoon at around 10 mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, cooler, and much less humid with highs in the low 80's.
- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 2nd image: Tropical Storm Fred map from the NHC
- 3rd image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days
- 4th image: Projected heat index for 2 PM tomorrow from the HRRR model
- 5th image: IR satellite image for Fred
- 6th image: 06Z model tracks for Fred
- 7th image: Projected rainfall for Florida through 2 AM Tuesday from the WPC
- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend