Franklin to become a Cat 4 and future Idalia heading to Florida with intensity estimates increased!
- Hurricane Franklin will become a Cat 3 hurricane later today or tonight and is expected to peak as a 130 mph Cat 4 tomorrow night, and there is a chance it could make a hard right turn and get close to Bermuda (check out the split in the Euro ensemble members below). The NHC forecast cone will likely be adjusted a little more in time showing a sharper turn to the east near or north of Bermuda.
- Tropical Depression Ten (future Idalia) has been drifting SSW and is now near Cozumel, but it will eventually lift north and the track seems fairly set in stone, relatively speaking, as you can see in the images below. Intensity is almost always the bigger question as the high-resolution hurricane models continue to show the potential for a Cat 3, and the NHC has increased their peak intensity up to 90 mph and have noted that this may be too low and will likely be increased. The problem is the more rapid intensification will mostly be in the last 24 to 36 hours prior to landfall. I have also included the 5-day rainfall map below. Regarding intensity, this is from the National Hurricane Center: "The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There's a notable risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model consensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida."
- I have included the Long Island forecast in the last image. Basically some showers at times in the Tuesday into early Wednesday period and then decreasing humidity and clearing skies early afternoon on Wednesday with really nice weather into Labor Day weekend.
- I will have more updates this morning, but I won't have any updates after 1 PM as I will be heading to a wedding, so my next update will be by around 5:15 AM tomorrow with all of the latest info.
