Dr. Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
Forecasts for tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico next week are rather inconsistent, but the situation will likely be governed by some broad themes: A northward surge of tropical moisture from the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico is expected beginning mid-week. An upper-level trough over the central gulf coast will aid in ushering moisture northward and organizing thunderstorm activity, leading to possible formation of a broad area of low pressure in the gulf. The upper-level trough would also impose vertical shear and dry air on the developing low, most likely resulting in a sloppy-joe-style storm characteristic of June. At a minimum, a multi-day period of heavy rain is likely for Cuba, parts of Florida, and the Bahamas as tropical moisture gradually encroaches northward, possibly creating flooding hazards. An organized, strong tropical cyclone with high winds isn't particularly likely in this setup, but we won't know for sure until a storm begins forming, if one indeed does next week.
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