From the National Hurricane Center with the Euro ensembles in the 2nd image:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023 Central Gulf of Mexico: An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The system is then forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula later this week. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.