A well-defined shortwave trough and embedded MCV from last night's severe MCS is tracking into western NY. Strong heating of a moist air mass ahead of this system will result in intensification of thunderstorms early this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward across NY/northern PA into New England this evening. Damaging winds (potentially widespread) will be the main concern with these storms, although hail and a tornado or two are also possible. Have expanded the SLGT risk to the MA/NH coast, given favorable westerly surface winds and morning CAM solutions suggesting that MCS may persist that far.
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