***Tomorrow is October! 4:20 AM update on imminent Kirk, future Leslie, and the potential for Milton in the Gulf, as well as the Long Island forecast, and yes the Euro has the storm for next Tuesday, but it's a long shot.***
- Kirk will form today, maybe even with the advisory coming out shortly after this post, and it will become a major hurricane and curve north in the middle of the Atlantic and not even get close to Bermuda.
- Future Leslie is a little behind Kirk and will likely also become a hurricane with a chance to become a major hurricane as well. It will likely make it at least a little farther southwest, but only around 4 of the 50 Euro ensemble members have it getting to the northeastern Caribbean islands, as it will also turn north and very likely not get that close to Bermuda.
- Regarding the Gulf and Florida, the National Hurricane Center is still at a 50% chance of tropical development within the next 7 days as the timing may be a little later now. While the new GFS run makes it a hurricane and has it go into the west coast of Florida next Tuesday, that is a fairly low chance. It's not impossible though. The majority of the ensemble members from the Euro and GFS have it as maybe a tropical storm with some having it as a low-end hurricane generally heading into the northeastern Gulf coast with the timing now mostly being the early to middle part of next week.
- After those 3 storms, the ensembles are mostly quiet.
- The Long Island forecast graphic is posted below as it will be a mainly quiet week with just a slight chance of a shower a couple of times and then warmer with more sun later in the week and into the weekend. Yes, the Euro does have a nor'easter next Tuesday, but the chances are low right now! You know I'll be watching it.
- I will continue to update with the latest information, and thank you to all of my new followers!
- 1st image: NHC map
- 2nd image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days
- 3rd image: Map for future Hurricane Kirk
- 4th image: GFS for next Tuesday
- 5th image: My Long Island forecast
- 6th image: Model Blend rainfall map for the next 10 days
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