Heavy rain coming to Montauk, but a difficult forecast overall:
- The rain is approaching Long Island this morning (see 2nd image), and southeastern Suffolk will get the most where heavy downpours with thunderstorms are possible. 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely in Montauk and amounts approaching 3 inches can't be ruled out. There will be a sharp rainfall gradient, so just keep an eye on the radar this morning. Also, the highs today will have a fairly large range on Long Island where the upper 80's are possible for northwestern Nassau, but highs will only be in the upper 70's for Montauk.
- The secondary cold front moves through late tonight, and there is uncertainty in the forecast for tomorrow into tomorrow night regarding the amount of cloud cover and showers around. Showers from the cold front may still be around early in the morning, and then more clouds and showers are possible in central to eastern Suffolk later in the day and at night.
- While some rain is looking likely early next week, the exact timing and amounts are uncertain as models seem to have shifted the heaviest amounts a little farther east, but it will be an evolving situation.
- No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected in the Atlantic Basin for at least the next 7 days.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Humid with morning showers with heavy downpours and thunderstorms out by Montauk where 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely. Partial clearing by late afternoon from west to east with highs ranging from the mid to upper 80's in Nassau to the upper 70's for Montauk. Wind generally out of the N at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower after midnight with lows in the upper 60's. Wind out of the S in the evening and then becoming out of the N at 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Friday: Chance of a morning shower and partly sunny overall and less humid, but with more clouds out east where there is a chance of an afternoon/evening shower. Highs in the low 80's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the N at 10 to 15 mph.
Friday night: Partly cloudy in Nassau with more clouds and a chance of showers in Suffolk. Lows in the mid 60's. Wind out of the N at 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with comfortably low humidity with more clouds possible out east. Highs around 81 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the N at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with comfortably low humidity with highs in the low 80's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NW at around 5 mph in the morning and then out of the S at 10 to 15 mph by late afternoon.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with moderate humidity with a 50% chance of showers in the afternoon/evening with highs in the upper 70's to around 80 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SE at 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers with highs in the upper 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind generally out of the E at 5 to 10 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 2nd image: Current radar as of 4:39 AM
- 3rd image: Projected rainfall through 4 PM from the HRRR model
- 4th images: Future radar for 11:00 this morning from the HRRR model
- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend