"The big question then becomes how much organization will an upper level low undergo late Friday and into at least the first half of the Memorial Day weekend. The upper level energy that swings north of the area Wednesday night is now being progged to leave a significant piece of its energy behind, with what appears to be a hint of discontinuous retrogression for late Thursday into Friday. A closed low looks to form now on much of the global deterministic guidance with this feature appearing washed out a bit in the ensemble means. The new ECMWF (Euro) reforms and consolidates upper level energy centered over OH and PA Saturday and Saturday night. This leads to low pressure and offshore moisture being drawn in from the SE and E at some point during the holiday weekend from the ECMWF (Euro), and a bit later out in time from the CMC GEM (Canadian). It may work out that this offshore moisture does not get tapped, depending on how the upper level low forms and manifest itself. In the meantime, strayed from consensus guidance a bit and added more cloud cover and added slight chance PoPs for the start of the weekend. For now temps should average near normal, but daytime temps could be lowered in the upcoming days if more extensive cloud cover and higher precipitation chances look to be realized."
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