Here we go! Projecting on the verge of major hurricane status in 5 days with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts up to 130 mph:

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.

3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

 60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

 72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

 96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH