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I'll post future radar maps a little later this morning, but here's the new map and info from the Storm Prediction Center:

...Mid-Atlantic to New England...


 Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop initially during midday near the cold front, then through the afternoon ahead of the cold front (especially over higher terrain and near prefrontal troughing in the boundary layer). Convective coverage and intensity should increase as this activity moves eastward to northeastward across the outlook area, forming a blend of discrete storms, clusters and lines. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, and several gusts above severe limits are possible as well.


As the mid/upper-level synoptic trough approaches, deep-layer southwest flow and shear will strengthen over the area, with the mean-wind and deep-shear vectors oriented along to slightly rightward of the axes of convective forcing. This will support the mixed modes, which may include isolate supercell structures as well. Overall organization will be aided by 30-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes from central PA northeastward, and 20-30 kt farther south and southwest. Meanwhile, the greatest buoyancy should reside over the coastal Mid-Atlantic amid rich moisture and strong diurnal heating. Although midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be very weak (near or even less than moist-adiabatic in some layers), ambient low-level theta-e and diabatic heating should drive MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range over most of the region, and around 2000 J/kg near the coast -- all atop well-mixed subcloud layers supporting downdraft accelerations.




 
 
 

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