Link for more info: https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast
Winter Seasonal Forecast October 27, 2023
- There are no changes to the overall forecast. - Unlike last year, the worry is it will be colder than what we have out. - A major stratospheric warming event may unfold in December, with some who's who of worst winter analogs in that group. While the ONI is very warm, the MEI, SOI, and TPI are not coming along for the ride. - This means the standard El Niño analogs are questionable. The MJO is expected to be centered in Phases 8 & 1, not Phases 4-6 like last year. - Snowfall will be crucial. Larger amounts in the heart of the season have occurred in the analog years and would mean colder temperatures (than shown here).
The Verdict: I have not changed the maps but have shown what I fear the greatest threat is this year. Last year we nailed the cold December but the forecast was centering the cold in the center of the U.S. because I did not know which MJO signals would win out. This year I am much more confident colder signals will win out. With them is the threat of a widespread cold winter.
The other change from last year is that I don't expect winter to wait until mid and late winter. In fact, it may be the 45-60 days centered from mid-December to mid-February that can steal the show. There is a lot of potential here and it is not your standard El Niño. Europe will also share in the cold threat.


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