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  • Writer's pictureMy Personal Weatherman™

Increasing chances of tropical development:

Mid to late September is looking very active in the tropics, with the potential for multiple tropical systems to track; I wouldn't be surprised if Paulette, Rene, Sally, and Teddy all form this month.

Here's the latest update from the National Hurricane Center on the 3 systems to watch in the eastern Atlantic:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Gradual development is possible early next week as 
the larger tropical wave located off of the coast of Africa passes 
to the north of the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with 
another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the 
Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is likely to 
be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- 
northwestward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is more 
likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic 
where environmental conditions are forecast to be more favorable 
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa over the weekend.  An area of low pressure is expected to 
form from the wave, and some development of this low will be 
possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

The 2nd image is the map from the Euro at 8 PM on September 12th, as it's showing 3 tropical systems in the Atlantic.

The 3rd image shows the severe weather potential for today into tonight from the Storm Prediction Center.

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