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  • Writer's pictureMy Personal Weatherman™

It's up to 70% now, and the first name on the list is Arlene:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Recent satellite wind data, along with buoy and ship observations indicate the area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has a broad but well-defined circulation with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low is also showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional development, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form as soon as this afternoon. The system is likely to meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight but begin a slow southward motion on Friday. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system continues moving southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

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