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Writer's pictureMy Personal Weatherman™

L.I. forecast and comments on what's ahead and when the next slight chance for northeast snow is:

- Enjoy the mild and windy day today as temps will hit 60 degrees in parts of southern New England.

- The storm over the southeast this weekend will produce snow in the mountains of western North Carolina and nearby areas as they will be under the closed-off upper level low (see snow map in 2nd image).

- The rain shield from the storm should make it as far north as Long Island towards midnight on Sunday night (3rd image), and it will then bring some snow to Nova Scotia and become a nice snowstorm for Newfoundland.

- We still have the big storm cutting up through the Great Lakes late next week which will produce rain and wind in the northeast with the cold front (4th image). Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are still expected, with the highest gusts along the coast and at higher elevations. When the Euro ensemble mean max gusts for Long Island (5th image) are already 50 mph 6 to 7 days away, it's a strong signal.

- Brief colder air then follows behind the cold front for next Friday night into Saturday before above average temperatures return starting next Sunday.

- There is a wide range of temperatures possible with great uncertainty in the pattern for Feb 22nd to 24th with some ensemble members having highs in the 50's and some in the 30's (6th image) as it will depend on the storm track, but that is the time period for the next slight chance for a northeast snowstorm.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Mostly sunny and windy, especially in the morning, with highs in the mid 50's. Wind out of the W at 20 to 30 mph in the morning and then out of the WNW 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and breezy with lows in the low 30's. Wind out of the WNW/NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Tomorrow: Sunny and breezy in the morning with less wind in the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 40's in Nassau and low 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the NW at 15 to 20 mph in the morning and around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy with lows around 30 degrees. Wind becoming light and variable.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning and mostly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the WSW at 5 mph in the morning and becoming out of the ENE at 5 to 10 mph by late afternoon.

Monday: A 50% chance of morning showers and then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Wind mostly out of the N/NNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny with highs around 50 degrees in Nassau and in the upper 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy overall with a slight chance of a passing shower with highs in the low 50's. Wind out of the S at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday: Increasing clouds in the morning with a 40% chance of showers in the afternoon and becoming breezy with highs in the upper 50's in Nassau and mid 50's in Suffolk. Wind out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the S at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon and becoming very windy at night with the potential for gusts up to 45 mph.


- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: Projected snowfall this weekend from the NWS

- 3rd image: Map from the Euro for the time period 7 PM Sunday to 1 AM Monday

- 4th image: Map from the Euro for the time period 1 AM to 7 AM next Friday

- 5th image: Lon Island wind matrix in knots from the Euro ensembles

- 6th and 7th images: Projected temperatures for Long Island









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