L.I. forecast and the big storm with rain/wind/coastal flooding/ flash freeze/Arctic blast:

- The details for Long Island are in the forecast below and you basically know what to expect. The rain mostly arrives tomorrow early to mid afternoon from west to east and becomes heavy at times at night with increasing wind with gusts up to 50 mph after midnight. The NWS will definitely issue a Wind Advisory and are considering a High Wind Watch for Thursday night into Friday. Temps will rise overnight into the mid 50's by Friday morning, and there will be a lull in the rain before more rain arrives later in the morning from the cold front. Temperatures will drop rapidly starting in the mid-afternoon with the rain ending around 2:30 PM to 4 PM from west to east, but this may have to be tweaked, and changing briefly to snow before ending can't be ruled out. It looks like only around 1.5 to 2 hours between the time the rain ends and when the temps drop below freezing, so watch out for black ice by around 4 to 5 PM from west to east. Temperatures will be dropping all the way to 16 degrees by morning.

- Regarding coastal flooding, from the NWS: "Potential continues to increase for a widespread moderate to locally major coastal flood event during the Friday morning high tide cycle. The highest threat for major (3 ft inundation) coastal flooding on Friday looks to be along Jamaica Bay and the south shore of Nassau and Western Suffolk County.

- Frigid for Christmas Eve and only slightly better for Christmas Day because of less wind.

- I am still watching the offshore system for the middle of next week and am not yet convinced that the precipitation shield will stay offshore.

LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Partly to mostly sunny with highs around 40 degrees. Wind light and variable.

Tonight: Increasing clouds with lows in the upper 20's to near 30 degrees. Wind nearly calm in the evening and then out of the NNE at 5 mph after midnight.

Tomorrow: Cloudy with rain developing mostly between Noon and 3 PM from west to east and becoming breezy with highs near 50 degrees. Wind out of the ENE at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Rain, heavy at times, and becoming very windy! Lows in the mid 40's in the evening and slowly rising into the mid 50's by morning. Wind shifting from the E to the S at 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

Friday: Rain, heavy at times very early in the morning, with a lull in the mid morning and very windy with highs in the upper 50's in the morning and then falling rapidly in the afternoon and evening into the mid teens by morning. Rain should end by 2:30 PM to 4 PM from west to east. Some icy conditions are possible on untreated surfaces around 1.5 hours after the rain ends. Wind out of the S at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph and then becoming out of the W/WSW by late afternoon with gusts up to 50 mph. Total rainfall is expected to be around 1.75 to 2 inches.

Friday night: Partly cloudy, very windy, and becoming frigid with lows in the mid teens with a wind chill around zero degrees. Wind out of the WSW at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Saturday (Christmas Eve): Partly cloudy, windy, and frigid with highs only in the mid 20's with wind chill temperatures in the single digits to low teens. Wind out of the W at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

Sunday (Christmas): Mostly sunny and a little breezy with highs in the mid to upper 20's. Wind out of the W at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny with highs around 30 degrees. Wind out of the W at 10 to 15 mph.

- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd and 3rd images: Future radar from the NAM for Friday at 2 AM and 1 PM

- 4th to 6th images: Projected snowfall and precipitation from the Model Blend and max gusts (in knots) from the Euro

- 7th and 8th images: Projected temperatures for Long Island