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Latest on 70 mph Nicole with rain/wind maps and Long Island forecast and comment on next week storm:

- Nicole is on the verge of hurricane status and it should make it there, but NHC is still keeping it as a minimal Cat 1 as dry air and shear limit further intensification. So, while there will be a small core of wind gusts in the 65 to 80 mph range, there will be a HUGE area of tropical storm force winds all the way into South Carolina with a 2 to 4 foot storm surge there.

- The rain for Long Island starts on Friday between Noon in Nassau and 4 PM out by Montauk with heavier rain at night with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Wind gusts from the south will be up to 40 mph with some isolated gusts to 45 mph and possibly 50 mph out by Montauk. The rain should end between around 8 AM and 10 AM (possibly 11 AM by Montauk) from west to east Saturday morning, and the sun will come out and it will be windy still and 70 degrees before temps start falling in the mid to late afternoon. The weak trailing offshore system later on Sunday into Sunday night will bring a slight chance of light showers for eastern Suffolk.

- The next storm looks to be the middle of next week with snow for the higher elevations of northern and western New England and NY state with rain for Long Island and southern and eastern New England (see 7th image).


Today: Sunny with highs in the low to mid 50's. Wind generally out of the NE at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the E at around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and nearly calm with lows in the low to mid 40's in Nassau and upper 30's to low 40's in Suffolk.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 60's in Nassau and low 60's in Suffolk. Wind out of the WSW at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds with lows in the low 50's. Wind becoming nearly calm after midnight.

Friday (Veterans Day): Rain developing between Noon and 4 PM from west to east with highs in the upper 60's. Wind nearly calm early in the morning and then out of the SSE at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Friday night: Rain, heavy at times with a slight chance of a thunderstorm, humid, and windy with lows in the mid 60's. Total rainfall of 1.25 to 2 inches with the highest amounts in western Nassau. Wind out of the S at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph with some gusts up to 50 mph possible out by Montauk.

Saturday: Windy with rain ending between around 8 AM to 11 AM from west to east with the sun coming out in the afternoon, and it will be breezy with highs near 70 degrees. Wind becoming out of the W at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy in the morning and then mostly cloudy in the afternoon in Suffolk with a 20% chance of showers in eastern Suffolk with highs near 50 degrees. Wind out of the WNW at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon with highs around 50 degrees. Wind out of the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd to 4th images: Maps from the NHC for Nicole

- 5th image: Max gusts from the NWS for the southeast

- 6th and 7th images: Rainfall maps from the WPC through 7 PM Saturday

- 8th image: Map from the Euro for 7 PM next Wednesday

- 9th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend

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