Let's see what the new Euro (ECMWF) and ensembles show, but here a current assessment by the expert:
- My Personal Weatherman™

- Jul 31, 2024
- 1 min read
Dr. Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits:
Continuing to watch a tropical wave currently moving through the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands bringing showers to the region.
Consolidation of a tropical system remains possible over the weekend or next week as the wave moves westward within a favorable environment, but it will take time given that no circulation yet exists.
The forecast is challenging, as the wave axis will encounter deformation/stretching that could lead to the northern portion of the wave moving more northward than the southern portion. ECMWF and GFS disagree on which segment of the wave axis will amplify most. ECMWF depicts a stronger northern cusp that tracks east of Florida, while GFS amplifies the middle portion of the wave and tracks west of Florida.
With development of a storm, if any, still days away, it's too early to know details and location of any potential impacts. There remains a possibility that no storm forms at all. But this wave should be watched, and will certainly bring showers to the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and eventually Florida during the remainder of this week.








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