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Maps for 7 AM Monday:

These maps are all for 7 AM Monday from the HRRR model. I'm not saying the wind gusts will be as high as shown, but the wind will be ripping on Long Island with a very strong low-level jet overhead. The following is the thinking from the US National Weather Service New York NY: There is at least more confidence regarding wind impacts for this event. 925mb winds are progged at 60-85 knots along with 55-70 knots at 950mb over coastal sections late Sunday night/early Monday morning. It appears that the low level inversion will be at least a little weaker than with this past Sunday-Monday`s storm as temps aloft would be cooler with SE winds instead of S-SW like the previous system. Thinking there`s potential for 60-70% of the 925mb winds to mix down to the surface, especially in the heavier downpours. After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have issued high wind watches and wind advisories as models continue to show a strong llj (low-level jet) heavy downpour potential, and a storm track that would promote wind headlines for these zones. Unlike the previous storm, NBM (Model Blend) probabilities of 45+ mph gusts have been increasing as we get closer to the event - increasing the forecast confidence. Even with the llj (low-level jet) out of the picture by late Monday morning, the rest of Monday should still be at least breezy as SW to W winds gusts to 30-40mph.





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