Max storm surge now increased to 4 to 7 feet. NHC still projecting 85 mph maximum sustained winds with gusts up to 100 mph, although you can see some of the competing factors in their discussion here:
- My Personal Weatherman™

- Jul 7, 2024
- 1 min read
The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the storm. All of the model guidance respond to these conditions by showing a large increase in deep convection near the center and higher winds. However, some less predictable factors could prevent a big increase in winds, including dry air in the inner core, a somewhat large radius of maximum winds, and slightly faster landfall timing. Given that the regional hurricane models still show
significant deepening, the official forecast continues to call for near rapid intensification through landfall."











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