From the NHC: While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a 95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
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