New 11 AM update as it's expected to become Tropical Storm Alberto tomorrow and make landfall tomorrow evening:

Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of

this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal

flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center

along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will

impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern

Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce

considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed

river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher

terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas

Coast beginning today and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight or

Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 21.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H 19/0000Z 22.5N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 24H 19/1200Z 23.0N 95.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 36H 20/0000Z 23.3N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 48H 20/1200Z 23.3N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

 60H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED