Once the system develops an inner core, these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
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