- First, a quick summary of Long Island weather. I've included the Long Island forecast in the last image and it's always available on my website. Cooler the next few days with an onshore flow. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy today and tomorrow. Slight chance of sprinkles late today and this evening. Chance of some scattered showers late Wednesday into Thursday early afternoon or so. Warmer Thursday and Friday with partly cloudy conditions on Friday. A nice weekend ahead.
- As mentioned in my headline, scary pressures showing on the high-resolution hurricane models! The 4 different models have it get down to 926 mb, 922 mb, 913 mb, and 909 mb. Keep in mind that these models do better once the center has formed, but these are hard to ignore as rapid intensification would be likely once it forms. Ocean heat content is very high in the areas up into the Gulf that it will be traversing, and the wind shear will be low enough. Keep in mind that this will likely be a larger hurricane than would be expected for such a short lifespan, so the lower pressures may not necessarily correlate with the usual wind speed that would be expected historically.
- Landfall would likely be Thursday afternoon, possibly in the Panhandle to Big Bend area.
- The National Hurricane Center is at 90%, and I would think that by 5 PM today they would probably initiate coverage as a Potential Tropical Cyclone and posts Watches.
- Looking ahead, I have posted the full 15-day Euro ensembles map in the 8th image as Issac will likely form next and stay out and then potential Joyce could be stronger and make it a little farther west, but there is plenty of time to watch it.
- 1st image: NHC map
- 2nd image: HAFS-B model for 11 AM Thursday
- 3rd to 5th images: HAFS-A, HWRF, and GFS for 2 PM Thursday
- 6th image: Intensity estimates
- 7th image: Tracks from various models
- 8th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days
- 9th image: Model Blend rainfall map for the next 7 days
- 10th image: Long Island temps for the next 15 days
- 11th image: My Long Island forecast
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