From the NHC: By early next week, this system is forecast to move over near record warm sea-surface temperatures for the region in light shear conditions. It probably sounds like a broken record at this point in the season, but rapid intensification is a significant possibility, and the official forecast could be conservative below. The intensity forecast is near or above the intensity consensus, only leveling off at 120 hours due to gradual SST cooling and the possibility of eyewall replacement cycles, as suggested by the HAFS model suite.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 14.4N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.2N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.9N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.5N 49.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 22.0N 51.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 23.4N 52.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 26.0N 56.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 29.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
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