Rain and strong wind gusts as we get closer to sustained cold and the potential for snow:

- You all know about the strong cold front that will bring rain arriving between 10 AM and Noon from west to east on Long Island with very strong wind gusts, especially between 3 PM and 7 PM with gusts of 40 to 55 mph with an isolated gust close to 60 mph possible right along the south shore, especially in eastern Suffolk. The rain will quickly end this evening between around 6:30 PM and 8:30 PM from west to east, and the skies will rapidly clear as the temperatures plummet from the upper 50's to the low 30's with a wind chill in the low 20's by early tomorrow morning.

- More rain for Saturday afternoon into the evening and again Monday night into Tuesday as the temperatures continue to go up and down with each frontal system. Sustained cold looks to arrive next Wednesday night, and then northeast snow chances will slowly increase, even for Long Island, towards and after mid-December. The NAO looks to stay negative for a while, and the PNA will get close to neutral by mid-December.

LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

***Wind Advisory for all of Long Island for today from 11 AM to 9 PM for wind gusts up to 50 mph from the south.***

​Today: The main rain shield arrives between 10 AM and Noon from west to east and becoming very windy with moderate to heavy downpours with highs in the upper 50's. Wind out of the S at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 55 mph late in the mid to afternoon with the strongest gusts for the south shore and east end where an isolated gust close to 60 mph is possible.

Tonight: Rain and very windy early in the evening with the rain quickly ending from west to east between around 6:30 PM and 8:30 PM. Very strong winds out of the S in the late afternoon will quickly shift to a WNW wind in the early evening from west to east as the front passes and it will stay breezy/windy with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. Skies will quickly clear shortly after the rain ends, and it will then be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Temperatures will rapidly plummet in the evening after the front passes from the 50's an drop all the way into the low 30's by morning with a wind chill in the low 20's.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and windy with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the WNW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph.

Tomorrow night: Mostly clear and very cold with lows around 30 degrees in Nassau and mid to upper 20's in Suffolk with some low 20's in the Pine Barrens area. Wind decreasing from WNW at 10 to 15 mph in the evening to nearly calm by morning.

Friday: Sunny with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy in the morning and becoming windy with rain arriving around Noon and continuing through the evening with highs in the upper 50's. Wind out of the SW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon/evening.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Increasing clouds with highs around 50 degrees. Wind out of the NW then ESE by late afternoon at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Showers likely with highs in the mid 50's. Wind out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: 15-day snow map from the Euro ensemble mean

- 3rd and 4th images: Future radar for 1 PM and 6 PM from the HRRR model

- 5th and 6th images: Max gusts from the HRRR model and National Weather Service

- 7th and 8th images: Projected temperatures for Long Island from the Euro ensembles and NWS Model Blend