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Snowstorm chances decrease for next weekend as we may miss the window of colder air:

- We have the snow for today for portions of southern to central New England, mostly at elevation, and the snow map is shown in the 2nd image.

- The Long Island forecast is below, and I just want to mention that there is a slight chance for some snow showers after midnight Sunday night into Monday morning from a weaker system that will pass mostly south of us, but we may be on the northern fringe.

- We will have some colder air for the middle to end of next week with highs on Thursday possibly only in the mid to upper 30's on Long Island.

- Regarding the potential storm for next weekend, while there is still uncertainty in the track, strength, and timing, it looks like the colder air will have time to retreat with the trough too far south and the slower movement of the storm allowing warmer air to return. For example, only 7 of the 50 Euro ensemble members are showing more than 2 inches of snow on Long Island. I have posted the 10-day snow maps from all 50 Euro ensemble members in the last 2 images.

- After this potential missed opportunity, snow chances look very low for a while.

- I will have occasional posts throughout the weekend.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Rain into mid-morning and then some widely scattered showers possible at times with a break of sun possible in the late afternoon with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind out of the NE then NW at around 5 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening with a slight chance of a shower and then partly cloudy after midnight with lows in the mid 30's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Partly sunny with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind out of the WNW to NW at around 10 mph.

Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs around 40 degrees. Wind out of the NW and then WSW late in afternoon at 5 to 10 mph. Snow showers are possible after midnight.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered snow or rain showers early in the morning and then partly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind out of the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with highs around 40 degrees. Wind out of the N at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 30's. Wind out of the N at 5 to 10 mph.


- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: NWS snow map through 7 PM this evening

- 3rd image: Projected storm locations/strengths at 1 AM on Jan 15 from the Euro ensembles

- 4th image: 10-day Model Blend snow map

- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island from the GFS ensembles

- 6th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member

- 7th and 8th images: 10-day snow maps from all 50 Euro ensemble members










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