The 1st cone!

Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED