,.. likely to stay offshore, but Euro starts hooking it near Cape Cod at end of run.***
- You all should know about the flooding rains well inland today and the strong winds on the east side with gusts up to 50 mph. The cold front with strong to locally severe thunderstorms swings east through the day and into tonight for Long Island with a tornado and damaging wind gust threat. The 2% area is really 2% to 4% of a tornado within 25 miles of a point and the 5% area is really 5% to 9%.
- It all clears out from west to east late tonight and although the humidity will still be pretty high on Long Island until late tomorrow, we have a great stretch of weather ahead with mostly sunny skies, comfortable temperatures and lower humidity.
- Ernesto will likely form by early/mid next week and get stronger as it gets closer to Puerto Rico and starts turning more northward. It will then probably become a strong Cat 2/ Cat 3 hurricane. The ensembles mostly have it pass inside (west of) Bermuda and head north off the east coast and possibly towards Nova Scotia. The Euro does start hooking it closer to Cape Cod next Sunday when its run ends, so it still needs to be watched as these things can change beyond day 6 or 7.
- 1st image: Tornado threat
- 2nd image: My Long Island forecast
- 3rd image: NHC map
- 4th image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days
- 5th image: End of Euro run next Sunday evening
- 6th image: Max gusts for today through tonight from the HRRR model
- 7th and 8th images: Rainfall maps from the HRRR and HREF ensemble mean
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