- Some patchy early morning fog this morning, and it will be a mild day with a few light showers at times with the best chance being from around late morning to mid-afternoon for Long Island. The cold front moves through tonight with some showers, mainly before 2 AM. It will be very mild in the evening with temperatures dropping towards morning to the low to mid 40's.
- The cold front will be stalled to our south on Friday, and there is still a slight chance that it is close enough to us Friday morning for some showers with the best chance (but still a low chance) for the south shore. I have included a future radar video below.
- Saturday is basically a washout, especially in the afternoon and evening, and there is a slight chance of thunder Saturday evening. Total rainfall from this morning through Saturday night is expected to be less than 1 inch on Long Island.
- The models and ensembles are still kind of all over the place with the developing coastal storm for Tues/Wed. I have included some maps from the Euro ensembles below. The new ensembles aren't quite as bullish as the run from yesterday afternoon, but there are still a handful of them that bring snow even for Long Island. It's possible that the storm strengthens when it's a little too far offshore or even too far south. Stay tuned for updates!
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Patchy early morning fog, and then mostly cloudy and becoming breezy with a few light showers at times with the best chance being from late morning to mid-afternoon. Highs around 60 in Nassau and in the upper 50's in Suffolk, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then SSW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly before 2 AM, and breezy with lows in the low to mid 40's towards morning after a very mild evening. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the evening and then out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and cooler with still a slight chance of morning showers from the stalled cold front just to our south. Highs in the low 50's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers towards morning with lows around 40 degrees. Wind out of the NNW then NE at around 10 mph.
Saturday: Rainy, breezy, and chilly with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the E at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25. There is a slight chance of thunder in the evening.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and becoming windy with highs in the upper 50's in Nassau and northwestern Suffolk and mid to upper 50's elsewhere, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the W at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Monday: Partly sunny with highs in the low to mid 50's in Nassau and low 50's in Suffolk, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NNW/NW at 5 to 10 mph.
***There is uncertainty with the track and strength of a potential coastal storm for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, so stay tuned for changes to the forecast.***
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and then cloudy in the afternoon with a 50% chance of showers with highs around 50 in Nassau and in the upper 40's to near 50 in Suffolk, but cooler for the east end. Wind out of the N at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Showers ending in the morning with a slight chance of some wet snow showers mixed in and breezy with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the N then NW at 15 to 25 mph.
- 1st image: Projected storm locations/strengths at 8 AM next Wednesday from the Euro ensembles
- 2nd image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 3rd and 4th images: Maps from the Euro ensemble members for early morning on next Wednesday
- 5th to 8th images: 8-day snow maps from the Model Blend, Euro ensemble mean, and all 50 Euro ensemble members
- 9th image: Future radar from the HRRR model from 6 AM today to 2 AM Saturday
- 10th and 11th images: Projected temperatures for Long Island
- 12th image: Projected precipitation through Saturday night from the Weather Prediction Center
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