Update on the first system and then the strong nor'easter with rain/wind and big northeast snow!

- The system for tomorrow evening into Saturday morning looks roughly the same, but some of the models are basically showing a lower chance of the rain changing to snow on Long Island. They seem to have pushed back the timing of the changeover to snow to more in the 2 AM to 5 AM period with snow showers Saturday morning changing to rain showers before ending mostly around late morning. The National Weather Service snow maps for this system are shown in the 6th and 7th images. I have included a future radar video from the NAM all the way at the bottom in the last "image", which goes from 4 PM tomorrow to 11 AM Saturday.

- Big nor'easter for Monday and Tuesday with the track still uncertain, but seems to have shifted a little closer to the coast, which pushes the rain/snow line a little farther inland. Also, the storm will be coming up the coast and then slow down and pivot before heading E/ENE out to sea, so it will be a long duration storm (see videos in 8th and 9th "images"). Heavy rain with max wind gusts in the 40 to 55 mph range for coastal areas with huge snow potential in parts of interior New England/NY. I have included the snow maps below (7-day snow maps in the 1st to 5th images) and some videos, and I will continue to update.

LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning and partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon with the most cloud cover in Suffolk and still a little breezy with highs in the mid to upper 40's in Nassau and mid 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the NNW/N at 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with lows around 30 degrees in Nassau and in the mid to upper 20's in Suffolk. Wind out of the N at 10 to 15 mph in the evening and 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon with showers developing around early evening from west to east with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind generally light and variable at around 5 mph.

Tomorrow night: Rain, possibly mixing with and changing to wet snow in some areas after 2 AM with a coating to up to a half-inch max being possible with the best chance in northwestern areas with lows in the low to mid 30's (mostly 33 to 35 degrees, warmest southeast). Wind out of the ENE then NE at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Snow showers ending as rain showers around late morning and then mostly cloudy and continued breezy conditions in the afternoon with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the NNE then N at at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning with increasing clouds later in the day with highs in the mid 40's in Nassau and low to mid 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the N then SSE late at 5 to 10 mph.

Monday: Rain and becoming breezy with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the E at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and ENE 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon with stronger gusts over 30 mph at night.

Tuesday: Windy with rain or snow showers depending on the track of the strong coastal storm. Highs around 40 or 41 degrees. Wind out of the NNW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

- 1st to 5th images: 7-day snow maps from the Euro, Euro ensemble mean, Model Blend, and Euro ensemble members

- 6th and 7th images: Snow maps for the first system, through Saturday morning, from the National Weather Service

- 8th image/video: Euro ensemble storm locations/strengths from Monday morning to Wednesday morning

- 9th image/video: Euro from Monday morning to Wednesday morning

- 10th image: Long Island snowfall matrix

- 11th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island from the Euro ensembles

- 12th image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 13th image: Future radar from the NAM from 4 PM tomorrow to 11 AM Saturday