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Update on the rain and strong wind gusts and the L.I. forecast with all of the maps:

- It's not looking good for northern Louisiana into central to northern Mississippi and western Alabama this afternoon into tonight with the potential for strong tornadoes (see 2nd image).

- Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph tomorrow afternoon/early evening for Long Island and southeastern New England with a very strong low-level jet moving through ahead of the cold front. NWS NY has held off for now on issuing a Wind Advisory for Long Island, but I think they will have to issue it later this afternoon.

- I have included some future radar images below, so you can time the rain for your area of the northeast. For Long Island, the main rain shield moves in during the late morning tomorrow and ends in the evening between around 7:30 PM and 9:30 PM from west to east. Temperatures rapidly drop as the wind shifts to the W behind the front tomorrow evening/night with temps in the low 30's by Thursday morning with wind gusts up to 30 mph.

- Another front will bring more showers Saturday afternoon/evening.

- After the ups and downs in the temperatures, the sustained colder air mostly arrives starting next Thursday, and then the snow chances will slowly increase after that.


Today: Mostly sunny in the morning with increasing mid to upper level clouds in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Wind light and variable.

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 30's to near 40 degrees in Nassau and in the mid to upper 30's in Suffolk. Wind out of the SSE at around 5 mph.

Tomorrow: Chance of a scattered shower around early to mid-morning, but the main rain begins in the late morning and becoming very windy with moderate to heavy downpours with highs in the upper 50's. Wind out of the S at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 to 55 mph late in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Rain and very windy early in the evening with the rain ending from west to east between around 7:30 PM and 9:30 PM. Very strong winds out of the S in the late afternoon will quickly shift to a west wind in the early evening from west to east as the front passes and it will stay breezy/windy with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. Skies will quickly clear shortly after the rain ends, and it will then be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Temperatures will rapidly plummet in the evening after the front passes from the 50's an drop all the way into the low 30's by morning with a wind chill in the low 20's.

Thursday: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy and windy with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind out of the WNW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Wind out of the WNW then WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy with showers in the afternoon into the evening and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 50's. Wind out of the SW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of a shower by mid to late afternoon with highs in the low 50's. Wind generally out of the S at 5 to 10 mph.

- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: Severe weather potential for today through tonight from the SPC

- 3rd image: 10-day snow map from the Model Blend

- 4th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles

- 5th and 6th images: Max wind gusts from the HRRR model and NWS through tomorrow night

- 7th to 9th images: Future radar for tomorrow at 11 AM, 4 PM, and 9 PM

- 10th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island from the Model Blend

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