Update on the storm for early next week with another very slight shift southward with the snow:

Most models have the rain/snow line mostly just north of Long Island with some snow near the beginning Monday evening and then changing to rain, but it's still far enough away and with enough uncertainty (as shown by the ensembles) that another subtle shift southward would lead to a snowier scenario. Basically, the secondary storm is forming farther south now and heading due east off the coast, so this is a snowier setup for southern New England. Below, I have posted all 50 Euro ensemble member maps for Tuesday morning to show the uncertainty and range of possible outcomes.

I will continue to update today with the latest info.

***5:15 AM Edit: The new 06Z GFS run came in with another slight southward shift with the snow and it now shows a snow to rain and then back to snow scenario for Long Island, and I have added the snow map with the last image.***

LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Light rain/drizzle ending in the morning and then cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the low 40's. Wind mostly out of the NE/ENE at around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of a passing shower around or just after midnight and then clearing skies with an increasing wind by morning with lows mostly in the upper 30's to around 40 degrees. Wind generally out of the SE at around 5 mph and then becoming out of the WNW at 10 to 20 mph by morning.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and very windy with temperatures in the low 40's in the morning and falling into the mid to upper 30's by late afternoon. Wind out of the NW at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph.

Tomorrow night: Mostly clear and very cold with a decreasing wind towards and after midnight with lows around 20 degrees in Nassau and in the upper teens in Suffolk. Wind out of the NNW with gusts to 25 mph in the evening and then 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Increasing clouds in the morning and mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a 40% chance of snow showers/flurries in the afternoon with highs in the low 30's. Wind at 5 to 10 mph from the NNE in the morning and S in the afternoon.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the W at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and WSW/SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

***There is some uncertainty with the storm for Monday late afternoon/early evening into Tuesday afternoon as the rain/snow line will be close to Long Island, so stay tuned as there could be changes to the forecast***

Monday: Increasing clouds with a mixture of rain/ sleet/ snow likely developing by late afternoon or early evening with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the NE at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the E at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday: Breezy with rain with a slight chance of some snow with highs near 40 degrees, but temperatures will be dependent on the storm track/intensity. Wind out of the ENE in the morning and N/NNW in the afternoon at 10 to 20 mph with gusts near 30 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

- 1st and 2nd images: All 50 Euro ensemble member maps for early Tuesday morning

- 3rd image: Projected storm locations/strengths for 7 AM Tuesday from the Euro ensemble members

- 4th image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 5th image: Projected 24-hour snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days from every Euro ensemble member

- 6th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles

- 7th to 10th images: Maps for the storm from the Euro, Canadian, GFS, and ICON

- 11th image: Brand-new snow map from the 06Z GFS run