- The models are mostly showing less snow for Long Island tomorrow morning, and the NWS has reduced their amounts, but even those seem too high. To me, it looks like temperatures never really get below 35 degrees early tomorrow morning, and any rain that changes to snow would be mostly between 5 AM and 10 AM and mostly in spots where a moderate/heavy period of precipitation occurs. Any snow ends as rain showers around late morning to Noon or so. Any accumulation that does occur would be on non-paved surface with the best chance for a coating or a little more away from the south shore and east end. Let's see the new HRRR and NAM runs around mid-morning to see if there are any changes.
- We still have the big bomb cyclone nor'easter for Monday into Wednesday morning with model/ensemble differences remaining for the exact details. There will be some huge snow totals on the northwest side of the storm. Even western Long Island could change to snow for a period Tuesday morning and maybe most of Long Island ends as snow showers Tuesday night, but we will see. As mentioned previously, the storm will rapidly intensify and then stall as it occludes and then gradually weakens and eventually pulls away on Wednesday. I have included all of the maps below, and I will have more updates until around 2 PM, and then another post or two tonight between around 7:45 and 9:00.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon with showers developing around late afternoon to early evening from west to east with highs in the mid 40's. Wind generally light and variable at around 5 mph.
Tonight: Rain and breezy with lows in the mid 30's. Wind out of the ENE then NE at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph after midnight.
Tomorrow: Windy with rain with some wet snow mixing in at times in some spots between 6 AM and 10 AM and ending as scattered rain showers by around Noon with little to no snow accumulations expected other than possibly a coating in some spots away from the south shore and east end, and then cloudy in the afternoon. Highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the NNE then N at at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Tomorrow night: Decreasing clouds and breezy with lows around 30 degrees in Nassau and in the upper 20's in Suffolk. Wind out of the N at 10 to 20 mph, decreasing after midnight.
Sunday: Sunny in the morning with increasing clouds later in the day with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the N then ENE late at 5 to 10 mph.
Monday: Rainy and becoming breezy with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind out of the E at 10 mph in the morning and ENE 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon with gusts to 25 mph.
Tuesday: Windy with rain and/or snow, depending on the track of the strong coastal storm with a better chance of snow during the morning and in Nassau with highs around 40 degrees with snow showers possible in the evening. Wind out of the NW at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with more breaks of sun in the afternoon and windy with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind out of the NW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and a little breezy with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the morning.
- 1st image: Video from the Euro from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM Thursday
- 2nd to 5th images: Snow maps through 1 PM tomorrow from the NWS (2nd and 3rd images), HRRR, and NAM
- 6th to 11th images: Snow maps through 7 AM Thursday from the Euro, Euro ensemble mean, Canadian, GFS, and Euro ensemble members
- 12th image: Long Island snowfall matrix
- 13th image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 14th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island from the Euro ensembles
Comments