***WINTER OUTLOOK***

WINTER OUTLOOK As we approach the upcoming winter months, it's been a while since we had a snowy winter on Long Island and nearby areas. As opposed to being in a La Nina phase in recent winters, this winter we will be in a moderate to strong east-based El Nino, which is generally not what you want for snow in the northeast. This will likely lead to well above average precipitation in the southeastern states and up into the Mid-Atlantic with an active southern jet stream with warmer than normal temperatures for the northern tier. The general thinking may not be all that different than what you have already heard about in that winter is expected to start relatively wet and mild in the northeast in December into early to mid-January. Before we even get to December though, it's still possible for a snow event in the second half of November, and I'm not saying it's impossible for Long Island to get snow in December to early January, but the chances are lower than normal. Things should start to look better for potential snow as we get into the middle and especially the end of January, and then I'm expecting (hoping for, LOL) a fairly wild 6-week stretch from the end of January into the beginning of March with a few big east coast storms. There are many wild cards that can come into play and change things earlier, such as blocking and Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, and nobody knows exactly how things will play out, but you can only play the percentages. While overall I would expect temperatures to end up above average with a below normal NUMBER of snowstorms for Long Island, I think a couple of big ones will give us a pretty good chance to end up with an average to slightly above average amount of snow. Of course, only time will well, and I will be with you every step of the way!

I have included maps below from 5 sources... AccuWeather, WeatherBELL, The Weather Channel, NOAA, and the Euro:

- 1st image: What I'm hoping to see a lot of this winter, LOL

- 2nd and 3rd images: Snow forecast from AccuWeather

- 4th and 5th images: Snow and temperature forecast from WeatherBELL

- 6th image: Temperature outlook for February from The Weather Channel

- 7th and 8th images: Temperature and precipitation probability maps for January to March from NOAA

- 9th image: Precipitation anomaly map for December to February from the Euro

- 10th to 12th images: Temperature anomaly maps for December, January, and February from the Euro

- 13th image: December to March temperature anomaly map for moderate-strong or east-based El Ninos